I’ve had this idea formulating in my head regarding urban planning and it came to at least a first-draft fruition in a reply sent to the Libertarian Party of Kansas’s mailing list. I wanted to share it here as I’d love to hear any comments/suggestions from my economic minded friends. (I’m calling you out Matt.
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Here’s the unedited (but with a touch of added markup for layout) mail:
From: Travis Bradshaw
Subject: [LPKS] Vacant Storefronts in Johnson County
Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 01:53:29 +0000
I recently spent some time in Johnson County and also noticed this
trend:
On Wed, 2006-01-11 at 19:24 -0600, Bill Baldwin wrote:
Also, see the number of vacant storefronts, all too often entire shopping centers, and malls. While the changes in spending patterns (more Internet spending, etc.) might explain some of the change, I suspect the main reason is the bad economy.
While it certainly could be an example of a “bad economy”, I think it
might be more specific. One thing that was undeniable while traveling
around Johnson County this weekend was both the number of completely
empty and/or desolate shopping centers and also the number of new
commercial areas under construction.
I have another hypothesis as to the empty shopping malls. It’s an
unsubstantiated hypothesis that I’ve tentatively named “slash and burn
urban planning.” It goes something like this:
One of the constant goals of city commissions and other urban planners
is the establishment of new businesses to increase tax revenue. It’s
not uncommon for huge incentives to be used–in various forms–to entice
otherwise uninterested commercial ventures to set up shop in a
particular area or development. From tax breaks, property subsidization
and/or pre-development, or outright theft–er, I mean, eminent domain,
lots of government intervention is often used to establish these
businesses in the governing bodies realm.
It seems logically sound, then, to believe that it’s entirely possible
for a region/city/township to use these incentives and actually bring in
business in surplus of the (to borrow a term from ecological biology)
“carrying capacity” of the area to support businesses.
New commercial areas are established using these incentives but are only
economically viable as long as the incentives are firmly in place. Soon
the hunger for more tax revenue and growth leads the urban planning body
to move towards the next development, consumer focus shifts to the newer
developments, and like the farming on the unfertile soil in the
rainforests the old developments die out.
I have a very strong hunch (that’s pretty well informed in free market
economics, but lightly informed on specifics in various regions) that
this new trend of heavy handed urban development in suburbian areas
around Kansas (especially NE Kansas) is destroying the diversity and
vitality of our relatively strong local economies. These new shopping
areas are less like gaining new options for commerce, and more like a
new pair of shoes in exchange for throwing out a previous pair.
During good times, the extra tax burden might be unnoticed and the new
commercial establishments might be sparkly enough that no one notices.
But, like Mr. Baldwin mentioned in his post, when this real estate debt
bubble pops… it could get very ugly.
All of the heavy planned shopping areas feel a little “fake” to me
anyway. I wouldn’t feel very comfortable at all when the carcass like
vacant storefronts (and perhaps houses lost to morgage debt) are all
that is left of a previously great place to live.
Travis Bradshaw